WTPN51 PGTW 121500 WARNING ATCP MIL 15W NWP 090912131017 2009091212 15W FIFTEEN 003 02 300 08 SATL 060 T000 150N 1521E 030 T012 153N 1505E 035 T024 153N 1489E 040 R034 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD T036 153N 1476E 045 R034 080 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 085 NW QD T048 158N 1460E 050 R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 095 SE QD 095 SW QD 105 NW QD T072 164N 1442E 070 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 105 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD T096 177N 1415E 080 T120 189N 1381E 085 AMP SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 003 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z --- NEAR 15.0N 152.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 152.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 15.3N 150.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 15.3N 148.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 15.3N 147.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 15.8N 146.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 16.4N 144.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 17.7N 141.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 18.9N 138.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 121500Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 151.7E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z. FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // WP, 15, 2009091006, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1570E, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 15, 2009091012, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1566E, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 15, 2009091018, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1562E, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 15, 2009091100, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1558E, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 15, 2009091106, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1555E, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 15, 2009091112, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1550E, 15, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 45, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, WP, 15, 2009091118, , BEST, 0, 136N, 1542E, 15, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 45, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, WP, 15, 2009091200, , BEST, 0, 143N, 1533E, 25, 1004, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 160, 45, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, WP, 15, 2009091206, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1528E, 25, 1003, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 160, 45, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, FIFTEEN, S, WP, 15, 2009091212, , BEST, 0, 150N, 1521E, 30, 1001, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 160, 45, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, FIFTEEN, S, NNNN