WTPN51 PGTW 120900 WARNING ATCP MIL 15W NWP 090912071653 2009091206 15W FIFTEEN 002 02 300 06 SATL 060 T000 146N 1528E 025 T012 149N 1514E 035 T024 152N 1499E 045 R034 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD T036 154N 1482E 055 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 085 NW QD T048 155N 1466E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 095 SE QD 095 SW QD 105 NW QD T072 157N 1434E 075 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 105 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD T096 164N 1398E 085 T120 173N 1362E 095 AMP SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z --- NEAR 14.6N 152.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 152.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 14.9N 151.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 15.2N 149.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 15.4N 148.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 15.5N 146.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 15.7N 143.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 16.4N 139.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 17.3N 136.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 120900Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 152.4E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z. FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // WP, 15, 2009091006, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1570E, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 15, 2009091012, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1566E, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 15, 2009091018, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1562E, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 15, 2009091100, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1558E, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 15, 2009091106, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1555E, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 15, 2009091112, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1550E, 15, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 45, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, WP, 15, 2009091118, , BEST, 0, 136N, 1542E, 15, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 45, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, WP, 15, 2009091200, , BEST, 0, 143N, 1533E, 25, 1004, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 160, 45, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, WP, 15, 2009091206, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1528E, 25, 1003, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 160, 45, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, FIFTEEN, S, NNNN