WDPN32 PGTW 111500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (MUJIGAE)/ WARNING NR 10// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W (MUJIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE LLCC APPEARS TO HAVE SUFFERED FROM THE CROSSING OF HAINAN ISLAND WITH ONLY A WEAKLY ORGANIZED LLCC REMAINING. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH TD 14W HAS SLOWLY BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS SPEEDS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS, BUT ARE SHOWING INDICATIONS OF WEAKING AS TD 14W APPROACHES VIETNAM. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD 14W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD INTO COASTAL VIETNAM WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS, AND WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS THE ALREADY DEGENERATING SYSTEM MOVES OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED BY TAU 24. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND SUPPORTS THE DISSIPATION SCENARIO.// NNNN