WDPN32 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN)/
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDS FORMING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE ALBEIT WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF T1.5. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON MULTIPLE AGENCY FIXES AND FROM A 091050Z 37 GHZ SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE. TD 14W IS BEING STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE WELL IN EXCESS OF 28 DEGREES. 
3. FORECAST REASONING.
    A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM
AND ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
    B. TD 14W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO WEAK TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. IT WILL THEN WEAKEN BACK TO A TD AFTER
TAU 48 WHEN IT ENCOUNTERS THE TOPOGRAPHY OF HAINAN ISLAND AND
ZHANJIANG PENINSULA.
    C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE IN THE GULF OF
TONKIN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
SUPPRESS ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE TD WILL THEN MOVE INLAND AND
DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR HANOI, VIETNAM. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK
FORECAST WITH GFDN AND JGSM AS RIGHT AND LEFT OUTLIERS, RESPECTIVELY.
THIS TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO THE LEFT AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN