WDPN31 PGTW 170300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W WARNING NR 01// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 11W HAS CONSOLIDATED WITH CONVECTIVEBANDS WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED, AIDED BY A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE NORTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 11W IS DIRECTLY UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS IN A ZONE OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. 3. FORECAST REASONING A. THIS BULLETIN ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THIS SYSTEM. B. TD 11W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-TO-MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. BY TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ON A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL STORM. C. TD 11W WILL TRACK ON A MORE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION BY TAU 72, SLIGHTLY INCREASING ITS FORWARD MOTION. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS OVER WARM WATERS, UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE TUTT TO THE NORTH. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE LIMITED AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO.// NNNN