WDPN33 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (ETAU) HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY AND
SPED UP IN ITS TRACK WHICH HAS BECOME MORE EASTWARD. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS REGAINED
CONVECTION DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND ELONGATED. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND FROM RADAR
FIXES FROM JAPAN. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES, AND FROM SEVERAL SHIP OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE
LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 10W IS UNDER WEAK TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DIRECTLY BELOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD DIFLUENCE PERSISTS OVER THE
SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM
AT 28 CELSIUS AND ABOVE. 
3. FORECAST REASONING
    A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED SLIGHTLY SINCE THE LAST
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN TO REFLECT THE SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION
DESCRIBED IN PARA 2.A.
    B. TS ETAU IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH THEN TURN
NORTHEAST AND BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL BY TAU 48. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS DESCRIBED IN PARA 2.A, THE SYSTEM WILL SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY
FURTHER OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS UP TO 40 KNOTS THEN TAPER BACK TO 35
KNOTS. ALL AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS
TRACK FORECAST.
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//
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