WTPN33 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 006    
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090600Z --- NEAR 28.1N 136.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 28.1N 136.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 30.3N 135.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 32.5N 136.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 34.9N 139.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 36.2N 143.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 22 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 38.6N 154.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 28.6N 135.9E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W 
(TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, 
HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING TO THE 
SOUTHWEST. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN ANIMATED IMAGERY AND A 
080143Z TRMM IMAGE THAT THERE MIGHT BE A SECOND CIRCULATION CENTER, 
POSSIBLY AT THE MID-LEVEL, ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLARE OF CONVECTION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE AXIS AND IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP A HEALTHY OUTFLOW 
CHANNEL DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNT OF MASS BEING EVACUATED BY 09W TO 
THE WEST, AND THIS IS KEEPING THE SYSTEM FROM INTENSIFYING. CURRENT 
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A DVORAK FIX BY PGTW. MODELS ARE 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TIGHT GROUPING OF OBJECTIVE AIDS. INTENSITY 
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE SYSTEM AT TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH FOR THE 
REST OF THE PERIOD, BUT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS NEAR 
THE COAST OF JAPAN AND STARTS TO INTERACT WITH THE DIFFLUENT REGION 
OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, IT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY 
SLIGHTLY. THIS FORECASTS REFLECTS THIS BY BRINGING THE SYSTEM TO 
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AT TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 
AT 090600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z 
AND 100900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (MORAKOT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
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