WDPN32 PGTW 090300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W WARNING NR 22// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (MORAKOT) HAS SLOWLY TRACKED NORTHWEST- WARD ACROSS THE TAIWAN STRAIT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS STARTED TO EXPAND RADIALLY OUTWARD WITH AN ELONGATION IN THE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST AXIS. CONVECTION HAS BECOME SPORADIC ABOUT THE LLCC, BUT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING IN TOWARDS THE LLCC. CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BRIEFLY RE- DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC OVER THE PAST 03 HOURS AND HAS LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION BRING THE CURRENT INTENSITY TO 45 KNOTS AT THE 0000Z POSITION. THE CURRENT POSITION IS ALMOST OVER COASTAL CHINA LEADING TO INCREASED UPSLOPE CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF TS 09W. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS PROVIDING GOOD EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED SINCE THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. B. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTH AS IT MOVES INTO CHINA ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND. DISSIPATION IS FORECASTED TO OCCUR BY TAU 24. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE REMNANTS OF TS 09W WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A MID- LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST CHINA SEA BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 72.// NNNN