WDPN32 PGTW 080300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (MORAKOT) WARNING NR 18// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MORAKOT) HAS SLOWED DOWN TO 05 KNOTS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AS IT HAS MADE LANDFALL ON TAIWAN. CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS WANED OVER THE SYSTEM AS SEEN IN A 072335Z SSMI IMAGE AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS, WITH TS 09W EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTWESTWARD ACROSS THE TAIWAN STRAIT INTO MAINLAND CHINA AND DISSIPATE. B. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS IT CROSSES THE TAIWAN STRAIT BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER LAND FALL IN MAINLAND CHINA BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24. AFTER LAND FALL THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 36.//