WDPN32 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (MORAKOT) WARNING NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MORAKOT) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK WESTWARD
AND MAINTAINED AN INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, 
THOUGH IT HAS STARTED TO SHOW A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE 
LAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY 
DEVELOPED TYPHOON WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS THE BEGINNINGS OF AN 
EYE FEATURE. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM 
PGTW AND RJTD AND THE CURRENT POSITION ESTIMATE ALSO INCORPORATES 
RADAR FIXES OUT OF TAIWAN. TY 09W HAS TRACKED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF 
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS STARTING TO 
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. 
TY 09W HAS ALSO STARTED TO SLOW ITS TRACK SPEED AS IT APPROACHES A 
WEAKER STEERING ENVIRONMENT CAUSED BY THE WEAKENING OF THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BY THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
    A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED SINCE
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
    B. FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS, TYPHOON 09W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK 
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS 
NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW AND TRACK 
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE RIDGE AND 
CAUSES A SLIGHTLY WEAKER STEERING ENVIRONMENT. IN ADDITION, TY 09W 
WILL SLOW IN TRACK SPEED AND WEAKEN IN INTENSITY SHORTLY AFTER TAU 
12 AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE TOPOGRAPHY OF TAIWAN. AFTER TAU 24, TY 09W 
WILL ENTER THE TAIWAN STRAIT AS A WEAK TYPHOON AND SHOULD MAINTAIN 
ITS INTENSITY THROUGH THE STRAIT DUE TO FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES AND MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES. TY 09W WILL 
ALSO CONTINUE ITS NORTHWEST TRACK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS 
BACK IN FROM THE EAST AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. TY 09W WILL 
MAKE LANDFALL NEAR FUZHOU, CHINA, PRIOR TO TAU 48 AND DISSIPATE OVER 
BY TAU 72. THE ECMWF AND JMA SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 
THIS FORECAST TRACK THOUGH THE NOGAPS MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT A 
DUE NORTH TRACK AND THE UKMO MODEL SHOWS A RAPIDLY MOVING 
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE CHINA COAST.//
NNNN