WTPN21 PGTW 020300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED// REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010251ZAUG2009// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS OF 19.0N 118.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 012330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 118.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 125.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 118.5E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD CONVECTIVE TURNING WITH NO CLEAR INDICATIONS OF A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AVAILABLE MICROWAVE IMAGERY IS ALSO INCONCLUSIVE AS TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LLCC, THOUGH THE 012311Z 91 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS SOME CURVED BANDING AND HINTS AT A CIRCULATION CENTER SOUTH OF 18N. AVAILABLE SCATTEROMETRY PASSES ALSO MISSED THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM THOUGH THEY CONTINUE TO DEPICT STRONGER WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS ON THE PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDI- CATES THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITION AND FORECAST TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS LOOKING TO SLOW THE SYSTEM BEFORE MOVING IT TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEVELOPING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SOUTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES. DUE TO CONTINUED DEEP CONVECTION AND STRONG PERIPHERAL WINDS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 030300Z.// NNNN