WDPN31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W WARNING NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TYPHOON (TY) 07W (MOLAVE) TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE AMOUNT 
OF CONVECTION HAS DECREASED BUT THE SYSTEM HAS TIGHTENED UP AND 
DEVELOPED AN EYE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
INDICATES THE TYPHOON HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED OUTFLOW ALONG ITS 
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT, ENHANCED BY A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE JUST TO THE 
SOUTH. INTENSIFICATION IS TEMPERED BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
EVIDENT ALONG THE NORTHERN RIM OF THE TYPHOON. THE CURRENT POSITION IS 
BASED ON ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM HONG KONG 
WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
    A. NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY, HOWEVER, THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
    B. TY 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK AS DESCRIBED IN PARA 2.A. AND 
MAKE LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF HONG KONG BETWEEN TAU 06 AND TAU 12. ITS 
REMNANTS WILL THEN TRACK INTO MAINLAND CHINA AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 24. 
AVAILABLE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST. 
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//
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