WTPN31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   150600Z --- NEAR 14.6N 127.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 127.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 16.3N 126.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 17.8N 125.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 19.1N 124.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 20.1N 122.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 20.6N 120.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 21.4N 115.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 23.2N 112.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 127.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W (SEVEN). LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM 
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS TD 07W 
HAS INCREASED CONVECTION WITH MULTIPLE BANDS CONSOLIDATING AROUND A 
DISTINCT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 150442Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS 
WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
THE SYSTEM IS UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)AND JUST SOUTHWEST 
OF AN ANTICYCLONE WHICH IS ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE TD IS 
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
TOWARDS LUZON STRAIT WHERE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS FAVORABLE. THE 
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY UP TO TAU 72 THEN GRADUALLY 
WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGHER VWS ON ITS WESTWARD TURN TOWARDS HONG 
KONG. AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODELS ARE SPLIT ON THE TRACK FORECAST 
COVERING A SWATH FROM NORTHERN LUZON TO CENTRAL TAIWAN. THIS 
FORECAST IS JUST NORTH OF CONSENSUS UP TO TAU 72 THEN SOUTH AND 
AHEAD OF CONSENSUS PAST TAU 72. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS 
REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 142121Z JUL 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 
(WTPN21 PGTW 142130 ). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 
8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.//
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