WDPN31 PGTW 111500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 08// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (SOUDELOR) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID- LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE PHILIPPINE SEA INTO CHINA. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION, ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY. TD 05W HAS CONTINUED TO HAVE INCREASED CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. CURRENT INTENSITY HAS DECREASE BY 5 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, BUT HAS BEEN STEADY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER CHINA CONTINUES TO CAUSE THE STRONG SHEARING OF CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE LLCC TO THE SOUTHWEST. 3. FORECAST REASONING A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. B. TD 05W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER CHINA. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST. AS TD 05W TRACKS TOWARDS THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA, IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND CONTINUED HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. COMPLETE DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED UPON MAKING LANDFALL IN NORTHERN VIETNAM AROUND TAU 36 TO 48. FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO// NNNN