WDPN31 PGTW 110300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 06// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS TAIWAN AND INTO CHINA. POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS LARGELY BASED ON AN INCREASINGLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY. TS 05W HAS INCREASED IN CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND HAS INTENSIFIED BY 05 KNOTS TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS AS WELL AS A 102236Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWING UNFLAGGED 30-KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM. 3. FORECAST REASONING A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. B. TS 05W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO CONFIRM THE PRESENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FINGER AT THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS EXTENDING INTO CHINA AND ACTING AS THE PREDOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TRACK THROUGH THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA AND EVENTUAL LANDFALL INTO VIETNAM (NORTH OF HANOI) JUST PRIOR TO TAU 48. THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY BEYOND ITS CURRENT STRENGTH OF 35 KNOTS. TS 05W IS STARTING TO EXPOSE ITS LLCC, INDICATING ITS ENCOUNTER WITH INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE NORTHEAST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD CONSENSUS WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS AND HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT THROUGH THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. TS 05W WILL MAKE LANDFALL BY TAU 48 AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 72. FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE// NNNN