WTPN32 PGTW 240900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 13.0N 121.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 121.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 14.3N 120.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 16.2N 119.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 18.3N 118.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 20.0N 117.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 22.9N 118.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 26.9N 121.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 31.6N 126.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 240900Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 121.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (NANGKA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK AS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES. DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND, TS 04W HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY TO 40KTS. THE INTENSITY IS BASED ON ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS THE SYSTEM WILL TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND INTENSIFY BEFORE FINISHING A RECURVE TRACK AROUND THE STR AND PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TAIWAN STRAIT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (VWS) AND THIS WILL PREVENT THE SYSTEM FROM UNDERGOING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. VWS IS PREDICTED TO INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NEAR TAIWAN AND THE SYSTEM WILL START TO DECAY AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH JGSM BEING A SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER THAT TAKES THE SYSTEM INTO SOUTHEAST CHINA INSTEAD OF RECURVING THROUGH THE TAIWAN STRAIT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z. // NNNN