WTPN32 PGTW 222100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 02 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z --- NEAR 11.1N 128.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 11.1N 128.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 11.8N 125.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 12.9N 124.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 14.1N 122.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 15.6N 121.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 19.3N 120.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 23.7N 122.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 28.0N 126.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 222100Z POSITION NEAR 11.3N 127.5E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W (FOUR) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TD 04W HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AND HAS SLOWED SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAXIMUM FORECASTED INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED AS TD 04W HAS INCREASED ITS SEPARATION FROM A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH, LOSING SOME UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW SUPPORT. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT FROM TAU 36 TO 48 WILL BE HINDERED DUE TO LANDFALL WITH LUZON WITH WEAKENING FROM TAU 48 TO 72. UPON EXITING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN RE-INTENSIFYING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT TAU 120 AS TD 04W STARTS INTERACTING WITH A STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (LINFA) WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR FINAL WARNING.// NNNN