WDPN33 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 01C WARNING NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01C (MAKA) HAS SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AS
ITS SUPERSTRUCTURE BECAME DECOUPLED DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, TS 01C HAS BEGUN
TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SECONDARY ALBEIT LOWER
LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THE STORM IS ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
25-35 KNOT VWS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, PHFO, AND RJTD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
    A. THE FORECAST INTENSITY REASONING HAS CHANGED SINCE THE LAST
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
    B. TS 01C WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 
48 ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
BY TAU 48, THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RECONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY
AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE STRONG VWS AREA INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT.
    C. AFTER TAU 72, MAKA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-WESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT TRAVELS OVER WARM WATERS AND
UNDER MINIMAL VWS. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS SPREAD OUT WITH NGPS
FURTHEST LEFT AND GFS FURTHEST RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS
ALSO CHANGED AND NOW SHOWS A WEAKER SYSTEM IN THE EXTENDED TAUS.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA.//
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