WDPN33 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01C WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01C (MAKA) HAS CROSSED THE DATELINE
AND SLOWLY TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED WITH DEEPENING CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A TUTT CELL TO
THE NORTHEAST IS PROVIDING A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL OVER THE
TD. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON DVORAK FIXES FROM
PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 01C IS JUST SOUTHWEST
OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY,
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG ITS TRACK ARE WELL IN EXCESS OF 28
DEGREES CELSIUS.
3. FORECAST REASONING
    A. THIS BULLETIN ESTABLISHES THE INITIAL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR
THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE.
    B. TD 01C IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS DESCRIBED IN PARA 2.A. THE SYSTEM WILL INITIALLY TRACK
SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW-TO-MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST.
    C. AFTER TAU 72, AS THE CYCLONE FURTHER DEEPENS, A MID-TO-HIGH
LEVEL STR TO THE NORTH WILL STEER THE SYSTEM ON A SLIGHTLY FASTER
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS LEFT OF
CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE, FAVORING ECMF.
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//
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