WDPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TROPICAL STORM 22W HAS REMAINED A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WHILE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD 
TOWARDS VIETNAM.
   B. CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM IS LESS THAN 60 NM FROM THE COAST 
OF VIETNAM, AND CONTINUES TO TRACK MORE OR LESS WESTWARD ALONG 
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL 
STEERING RIDGE. A SMALL CDO CONTINUES TO FLARE OVER AND OBSCURE 
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER LIMITING POSITION CONFIDENCE. 
BANDING FEATURES HAVE ALL BUT DIMINISHED AND LAND INTERACTION AND 
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAVE HALTED FURTHER INTENSIFICA-
TION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5 FROM PGTW AND KNES AND A 142229Z 
QUIKSCAT PASS.
  A. THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. 
   B. TS 22W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST TO NORTHWESTWARD TO
THE SOUTH OF A BUILDING RIDGE CENTER NORTH OF THE STORM. 
LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WITH DISSIPATION 
OVER LAND OCCURRING PRIOR TO TAU 24. THE FORECAST LIES TO THE 
NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS OF THE OBJECTIVE MODEL AIDS ACCOUNTING FOR 
MISREPRESENTATION OF THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT BY THE GFDN AND 
NOGAPS TRACKERS.
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//
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