msgid/genadmin/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc
subj/prognostic reasoning for typhoon 18w warning nr 18//
rmks/
1. For meteorologists.
2. 12 hour summary and analysis.
   A. Typhoon (TY) 18w has reintensified slightly after tracking
away from northern Luzon. Animated multispectral satellite imagery
depicts intense, renewed eyewall convection with an 20-nm ragged
eye. The 222156z tmi 85/37 ghz images showed a symmetric eyewall
with a banding feature over the eastern semi-Circle. Over the past
12 hours, the system has accelerated westward under robust mid-
level steering. Model consistency has remained excellent over the
past 24 hours with the model trackers in very good agreement.   
   B. The 22/12z 500 mb analysis continued to depict a strong sub-
tropical ridge (str) north of the system with 25-30 knot easterly
winds along the southern periphery of the str. Overall, outflow
remains good with an anticyclone evident over the system, and
weak to moderate vertical wind shear. The current position is
based on high-confidence position fixes supported by radar fixes
from Taiwan cwb. The current intensity is based on Dvorak EST-
imates of 102 knots from pgtw, knes and rjtd.  
   A. Other than slight intensity adjustments, the forecast philos-
ophy has remained unchanged.
   B. TY 18w is forecast to track westward through the period under
the steering influence of the mid-level str. The str is not expect-
ed to weaken significantly through the period with a zonal pattern
persisting across Asia. The system is forecast to make landfall
about 150 nm west-southwest of Hong Kong near tau 24 and should
rapidly weaken due to land interaction, expecially after it tracks
west of the Gulf of Tonkin. TY 18w is forecast to dissipate between
tau 48 and tau 72. The available model guidance is in excellent
agreement with this forecast with all models indicating a westward
track. This forecast is slightly faster than the consensus and
slightly south at the later Taus due to the excessive northwest-
Ward turn by WBAR and tc-laps directly into the str.  
Forecast team: Delta//