1. For meteorologists. 2. 12 hour summary and analysis. A. Over the past 12 hours, TY 07w has intensified slightly while tracking steadily westward along the equatorward peri- phery of a subtropical steering ridge to the north. The typhoon has maintained its structure and displays an eye feature despite sustained land interaction over the southern Philippines. B. The current storm position is based on satellite fixes from pgtw and rjtd. The current intensity estimate is consistent with Dvorak T-numbers of 5.0 to 5.5 associated with recent pgtw and knes fixes. Extensive, well-developed deep convective banding extending across very warm water and good equatorward and westward outflow aloft are allowing TY 07w to maintain structure and intensify slightly. The low terrain of the central Philippine Islands has provided little disruption to the vigorous low level inflow. Additionally, well-established central convection is apparently reducing the impact of increas- ing upper level northerly flow associated with upper level ridging to the north of the typhoon. The subtropical ridge to the north of TY 07w remains the primary steering influence how- ever, enhanced low level southwesterly winds to the southeast of the typhoon may soon provide a competing steering influence. 3. Forecast reasoning a. The forecast reasoning has changed significantly since the previous issuance of the prognostic reasoning message. The fore- cast track has been shifted to the west in response to a stronger than previously expected steering ridge to the north. Additionally, forecast intensities have increased despite land interaction and increased northerly vertical wind shear induced by upper level ridging. B. TY 07w is expected to continue tracking generally westward to northwestward over the next 24 hours under the steering influ- ence of the subtropical steering ridge to the north. This forecast deviates from the consensus of the numerical model aids which are in disagreement with the potential track of TY 07w. Model solu- tions are split into two groups. The first group, consisting of ngps, GFDN and GFS, depict an immediate turn northward into a re- curvature pattern associated with a weakening of the northern steering ridge. The second group of numerical aids, consisting of EGRR, ECMWF and UKMET, maintain the integrity of the steering ridge to the north, thus causing the track to propagate signifi- cantly further west. Following analysis of the surface and upper- level wind fields and metsat data, it appears that the latter group (eggr, ECMWF, ukmet) more closely approximates the current state of the environment, with specific regard to the strength of the established steering ridge to the north, and thus this fore- cast track favors the more westward solution. TY 07w will intensify slowly over the next 12 to 24 hours before moving over open water near tau 24 where it will continue a slow intensification under the competing influence of vertical wind shear and the unencumber- ed warm waters of the South China Sea. Near tau 36, the primary steering ridge to the north is expected to retreat westward allow- ing a developing near-equatorial ridge to the southeast of the typhoon to exert an increasing influence on storm motion. As this near-equatorial ridge builds, TY 07w will turn poleward shifting to a northwestward heading through tau 72. C. TY 07w will continue to track northwestward after tau 72 through- out the remainder of the forecast period. The system will continue slow intensification over warm water through tau 96 when further intensification will be inhibited due to increased vertical wind shear associated with ridging to the northwest. TY 07w is expected to make landfall along the coast of southeastern China approximately 60nm northeast of Hong Kong, and will begin a steady weakening trend throughout the remainder of the forecast period. Forecast team: Charlie//