subj/prognostic reasoning for tropical depression 07w warning nr 03//
rmks/
1. For meteorologists.
2. 12 hour summary and analysis.
A. Deep convection has continued to build and organize around a much- 
improved and better-defined low level circulation  center (LLCC) 
during the past 12 hours. A 182058z ssmis microwave image indicates 
deep convective banding wrapping into the LLCC from the poleward side 
of the storm, and formative banding within the southern semicircle 
beginning to strengthen and wrap into the tightenened LLCC. 
 Ts 07w has continued to consolidate and intensity at an 
increased rate due to well-established equatorward outflow; in 
addition to poleward outflow channel established by the TUTT cell 
located to the east of the system. Vertical wind shear has also 
remained low over the system as well.
B. Currently ts 07w lies in an environment conducive for further
strengthening and development in high ocean content/sea surface
temperatures and low vertical veritcal wind shear aloft, though
convection has waned somewhat in the northeastern quadrant. Animated 
water vapor imagery shows dual outflow channels firmly in place 
aslo aiding in continued strengthening. Current intensity is based 
on Dvorak analyses from pgtw, knes, and rjtd at 45  
knots. The system continues to track west-northwestward under the 
steering influence of a mid-level ridge located due north of the 
system. Position confidence has increased due to the improved 
structure of the system.   
3. Forecast reasoning
a. The forecast philosophy has not changed since the previous
prognostic reasoning bulletin.
B. Ts 07w is expected to track west-northwestward to northwestward
along the southern periphery of the low to mid-level subtropical ridge
located to the north of the system through tau 36. The system 
is forecast to track increasingly poleward as the northern ridge
weakens and the ridge east of the system becomes the dominant steer-
ing mechanism. The majority of the dynamic models support this track 
scenario and have come into better agreement with one another due to
a more robust sampling [more available members]. As a result, the 
models are in better agreement with indicating a northeastward turn 
near tau 36. GFDN, the eastern most outlier, illogically turns
the system too fast and into pronounced ridging to the north. Nogaps
has shifted substantially to the west and has become better aligned
with the previous forecast. All the same, some uncertainty still 
exists in the early forecast Taus regarding the northeastward turn 
given the extensive ridging that remains to the north. Therefore, this 
forecast is to the west of the consensus of available dynamical 
objective aid members. Ts 07w is forecast to intensify quickly 
through tau 36 in an area of very high ocean heat content and 
favorable upper level conditions. After tau 48 the system is expected
to intensity at a slightly slower rate due to lower ocean heat content. 
However, there is decreased confidence in the later forecast taus
given the poor initialization of the TUTT cell to the east that is 
currently providing poleward outflow, in addition to equatorward 
outlfow that will remain in place throughout all forecast Taus.
   C. Ts 07w is forecast to track northeastward at average speeds 
and maintain a steady intensity with good equatorward outflow 
(at least) and warm SST. Lower ocean heat content will retard
the rate of intensification. 
Forecast team: Bravo//