msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//
subj/prognostic reasoning for typhoon 03w warning nr 22//
rmks/
1. For meteorologists.
2. 12 hour summary and analysis.  
   A. Typhoon (TY) 03w (rammasun) has continued a rapid
weakening trend, with intesity falling an additional 30kts, 
over the past 12 hours due to low ocean heat content, high 
vertical wind shear and strong interaction with the midlat-
itude baroclinic zone. TY 03w has crested the ridge axis and
is now undergoing extratropical transition.
   B. Recent animated infrared satellite imagery indicates 
a rapidly decaying system with a cloud-filled eye and decreased
convective banding. Most remaining convection continues to be 
sheared to the northeast into the prevailing midlatitude 
westerlies. The low level is beginning to decouple from the
upper level as evident in comparison of 121024z 91 and 37ghz
ssmis microwave images. Wind fields continue to broaden as the
system gains baroclinicity with current intensity being based
on multiple agency Dvorak analyses ranging from 65 knots to 77
knots. Ocean heat content and sea surface temperatures continue
to weaken the system and facilitate extratropical transition
with the core of the system transitioning to cold core.
3. Forecast reasoning
   a. The current forecast track and philosophy remains 
consistent with the previous forecast.
   B. TY 03w is forecast to track generally northeastward 
throughout the forecast period as it moves further into the 
midlatitudes and interacts with the baroclinic zone. Rapid 
weakening will continue due to high vertical wind shear and
dropping ocean heat content. The system will quickly acquire
midlatitude characteristics as relatively cooler and drier air
begins to entrain the system making it fully cold core. By tau
24 the system will complete extratropical transition and be
fully enveloped within the midlatitude westerlies.
Forecast team: Charlie//