subj/prognostic reasoning for tropical depression 01w warning nr 11// rmks/ 1. For meteorologists. 2. 12 hour summary and analysis. A. Tropical depression (td) 01w (noname) was regenerated on the previous warning based primarily on surface observations from 489190 indicating 25 knot winds as the system center tracked directly over the island (the report also showed slp near 1006.1 mb). Animated infrared satellite imagery as well as a 151834z AMSR-E image depict- ed deep convection re-developing over the western semi-Circle with weak curvature. Based on the latest multispectral satellite imagery and a 152106z AMSU image, the system continues to maintain a well- defined low-level circulation center (LLCC) with persistent deep convective banding over the western semi-Circle. There is high con- fidence in the current position since the LLCC is partially-exposed along the eastern edge of the deep convection. B. TD 01w continues to track under the low- to mid-level sub- tropical ridge northwest of the system. There is high confidence in the current position which is based on a partially-exposed LLCC and a well-defined center in the 152257z SSMI 37 ghz image. The current intensity is based on Dvorak estimates of 25 knots from pgtw and knes. Animated water vapor imagery indicates good poleward outflow ahead of a strong upper-level trough situated over eastern Asia which is helping sustain isolated deep conv- ection. 3. Forecast reasoning a. The system was regenerated based on solid data but it is expected to remain a minimal TD within a marginal environment. There are no significant changes in the track philosophy since the previous warning. B. TD 01w will continue tracking south-southwestward through the period. This forecast is positioned slightly south of the consensus, closer to the Superior performing dynamic models that include NOGAPS, GFS and EGRR. WBAR continues to remain the sole outlier and indicates a westward track which is highly un- realistic. The system is forecast to continue weakening and should dissipate between tau 12 and tau 24 over water due to cooler SST, low ocean heat content and increasing vertical wind shear. Forecast team: Delta//