subj/prognostic reasoning for tropical depression 23w (hagibis)
warning nr 32//
rmks/
1. For meteorologists.
2. 12 hour summary and analysis.
   A. Tropical depression (td) 23w (Hagibis) has tracked generally
east-northeastward and maintained intensity over the past 12 hours.
Microwave imagery suggests a weakening inner core wind field with a
band of higher winds encircling the system center (at a radius of
45 nm). Animated eir and water vapor imagery depict persistent 
convection confined to the western periphery of the low level
circulation. 
   B. The system is on the southern periphery of the combined upper
level outflow of TY 24w and the synoptic-scale 200 mb ridge centered 
over the Northern Mariana Islands. As a result, wind shear values
remain high and convection is displaced to the western side of the
depression. The steering influence is a low- to mid-level, near
equatorial ridge building in the celebes sea. The current position
confidence is fair based on a mostly-exposed LLCC still apparent
in eir. Current intensity is based on subjective satellite estimates
ranging from 25 kt to 35 kts.
3. Forecast reasoning.
   A. The forecast reasoning for TD 23w has not changed since the
last issue of this bulletin.
   B. TD 23w will continue tracking east-northeastward to northeast-
Ward along the northern periphery of the near equatorial ridge.
Sustained vertical wind shear and land interaction should curtail
significant intensification through tau 36. By tau 48, the system
may intensify modestly as land influences diminish and sea surface 
temperatures remain favorable. This forecast is weighted toward the 
equatorward grouping of aids, with much less emphasis placed on the
more dramatic poleward turn of TCLAPS and WBAR.
Forecast team: Charlie//