msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc// subj/prognostic reasoning for tropical storm 16w warning nr 09// rmks/ 1. For meteorologists. 2. 12 hour summary and analysis. A. Ts 16w has intensified slightly over the past 06 hours. Animated multispectral imagery depicts improved convective banding, especially over the northern semi-Circle, and a developing CDO with a banding feature south. Synoptic surface observations from xisha dao (599810) and sanhu dao (599850) indicate the system center passed between the islands near 01/21z with minimum slp reported near 982 mb and sustained winds of only 15-20 knots (cpa was about 25 nm south- southwest of xisha dao). B. Ts 16w continues to track northwestward under the steering influence of the mid-level subtropical ridge north of the system. The current position is based on satellite position fixes from rjtd and pgtw as well as recent microwave imagery depicting improved banding wrapping into the northern quadrant. The current intensity is based on Dvorak estimates ranging from 55 to 65 knots. 3. Forecast reasoning. A. Forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous prog. B. Ts 16w will continue to track west-northwestward to westward under the influence of the subtropical ridge to its north. The dynamic aids are in good agreement with the track forecast. As it tracks south of the ridge, the storm will remain in a region of lower vertical wind shear and good diffluence aloft. This should allow for some moderate intensification in the short term. The storm will make landfall in northern Vietnam near tau 36 and will dissipate rapidly over land after tau 48. Forecast team: Bravo.//