1. For meteorologists.
2. 12 hour summary and analysis.
   A. Tropical depression (td) 16w (Lekima) has recently been upgraded
to warning status based on improved organization. A 292211z Quikscat 
image showed a tight low level circulation center (LLCC) with unflagged
winds of 25 to 30 knots. A 292129z SSMI microwave image shows convective
banding wrapping toward the LLCC from the western semicircle. The system
has tracked westward at 06 knots over the past six hours under the 
influence of the subtropical ridge to the north.
   B. TD 16w is located approximately 460 nm east-northeast of nha trang,
Vietnam. Current position is based on a loose cluster of satellite dvorak
fixes, with intensities ranging from 1.5 (pgtw) through 2.0 (knes) to
2.5 (rjtd). Upper level analysis reveals TD 16w is in an area of strong
divergence aloft with good poleward outflow and developing equatorward
outflow channels. 
3. Forecast reasoning.
   A. TD 16w is tracking westward in the Standard pattern, tropical 
easterlies regime, transitioning into the poleward flow regime by tau 36.
   B. Orientation of the subtropical ridge is expected to remain 
constant through the early forecast period. An approaching midlatitude 
trough is expected to weaken the ridge allowing a poleward turn near 
tau 24. The ridge will build back in after tau 36, initiating a westward
turn after tau 48. Due to the weakness of this system, the available
dynamic aids package is limited, introducing uncertainty into the initial
forecast. Generally the system will track westward to northwestward 
throughout the forecast period, and will slowly intensify as the upper
level environment improves and the LLCC undergoes further consolidation.
Forecast team: Delta.//