1. For meteorologists.
2. 12 hour summary and analysis.
   A. Tropical depresssion (td) 14w has maintained a small low level
circulation center (LLCC) over the past 12 hours, as seen in a 
202103z Quikscat pass. Animated multispectral imagery and a 202018z 
SSMI pass indicate that convection has remained in the vicinity of 
the LLCC. A subtropical ridge is building north of the 
storm and has accelerated the steering flow between this high
and a large cyclonic circulation just east of the Philippines.  
Due to the weak and small nature of the system, much uncertainty 
exists as to the initial position and past movement.
   B. Dvorak estimates have decreased to 2.0/2.5 from both
pgtw and knes. The previously mentioned Quikscat pass does indicate
20-30 kt unflagged winds at the center, suggesting that TD 14w is
still a minimal depression. A narrow upper level trough to the 
north of the storm may be inhibiting further intensification. 
3. Forecast reasoning.
   A. TD 14w has has moved at a faster speed than expected in
the previous forecast, as the anticipated weak steering environment
never came to fruition due to the building subtropical ridge. 
Therefore the current forecast reflects a faster track than the 
last.   
   A. TD 14w should continue to be steered between the building
subtropical ridge and the cyclone near the Philippines. The models
do not appear to be initializing the small storm well, and they
are further having difficulty representing the large cyclonic
feature near the Philippines. Given these factors, the track
is based on synoptic reasoning and the BAMS barotropic models. 
An alternate scenario would see TD 14w  being pulled toward the 
larger cyclonic circulation to its west. Although the forecast 
track extends to tau 72, the storm could potentially dissipate 
due to its poor upper level environment or interaction with the 
second cyclone. The official forecast calls for only a slight 
increase increase throughout the period.
Forecast team: Charlie//