subj/prognostic reasoning for typhoon 12w warning nr14//
rmks/
1. For meteorologists.
2. 12 hour summary and analysis.
   A. Typhoon (TY) 12w (Nari) has accelerated as it has moved
north of the subtropical ridge axis and into the midlatitude
westerlies. A 152126z SSMI/S microwave pass is beginning to
indicate the intrusion of drier air on the western side, and 
some loss of convection on the southern eyewall. 
   B. The initial intensity for TY 12w is 85 kts, based on
Dvorak estimates of 5.0/5.5 from pgtw and knes, and 5.0 from
rjtd. Radar imagery still indicates a well defined eye in the 
low levels. The cheju Airport is currently reporting winds of 
39 kts with gusts above 50 kts, with the storm located just to 
the south. 
3. Forecast reasoning.
   A. The forecast reasoning remains unchanged from previous fore-
casts.  
   B. TY 12w will continue to accelerate in the midlatitude 
westerlies, with landfall occuring at tau 12. The storm will 
very shortly encounter the midlatitude baroclinic zone, which 
is evident across the korean peninsula. Thus extratropical 
transition will likely begin within the next 03 to 06 hours, 
and should be complete before tau 24. The dynamic aids have 
come into good agreement with the forecast track, with the 
exception of GFS, which loses the tracker. The storm will 
weaken due to the influences of drier air and interaction 
with terrain after landfall. 
Forecast team: Charlie//