1. For meteorologists.
2. 12 hour summary and analysis.
   A. Typhoon (TY) 10w (Fitow) was upgraded to a typhoon on the
29/18z warning due to rapid intensification of the system and has
continued to consolidate. Microwave images at 29/1742z, 29/1850z,
and 29/2138z depicted a developing eye in 85ghz as well as tightly-
curved deep convective banding. The system has turned onto a more
northward track over the past 12 hours and has tracked at 09 knots.
Model agreement has improved with the majority of the aids now in
good agreement with the exception of the EGRR, TCLAPS, and wbar
which are on the northern edge of the envelope and indicate a
northwestward track. EGRR has been the most erratic model and has
shifted significantly north from the previous solution otherwise
model consistency has been good overall. 
   B. The current intensity is based on Dvorak estimates of 65
knots. A recent AMSU intensity estimate was slightly higher at
74 knots but based on the lack of a strong eye signature in
microwave decided to stay at 65 knots for now. The current
position is based on the incipient microwave eye, tightly-curved
banding, and fixes in good agreement. Upper-level outflow remains
excellent with good equatorward outflow and excellent poleward
outflow enhanced by a TUTT cell positioned east of the system.
TY 10w is currently under the steering influence of a strong low-
to mid-level subtropical ridge centered near 40n 180e. Recent
upper air analyses indicate that this ridge also extends north of
the system westward to about 130e. 
3. Forecast reasoning.
   A. The major change to forecast philosophy since the previous prog
is forecast intensity which was increased starting with the previous
warning.  
   B. TY 10w is forecast to turn northwestward within the next
24 hours as it begins to track under the ridge to the north then
will track westward through tau 72. The available aids are in good
agreement with this scenario and there is high confidence in the
track through tau 72. The system is forecast to intensify at a
greater-than-climatological rate through the next 24 hours due to
the excellent dual outflow. The TUTT cell which is enhancing the
poleward outflow is forecast to weaken after tau 24 therefore the
system should intensify at a climatological rate.    
   C. In the extended forecast period, the models remain in good
agreement with the exception of the models mentioned in para. 2.A.
There is still a high degree of uncertainty after tau 120 with
the majority of the models indicating a trough digging southward
and re-curving the system. The timing and strength of this trough
are key to the re-curvature point and track but are beyond the
scope of the current forecast. TY 10w is forecast to intensify
through tau 120 due to enhanced poleward outflow ahead of the
digging trough. 
Forecast team: Alpha//