1. For meteorologists.
2. 12 hour summary and analysis.
   A. Tropical Storm (TS) 10w has become much better
organized during the past 12 hours, with the development
of sustained deep convection and a tightening low level
circulation center. The storm has continued to track
generally northeastward along the eastern periphery of a
broad monsoon circulation and the northwestern periphery
of near-equatorial ridging to the south and east. Convec-
tive banding has persisted in the convergent low level
flow between the storm and the near-equatorial ridge.
   B. Recent Dvorak intensity estimates of 3.0 from pgtw
and 2.5 from knes and a 281925z Quikscat pass indicate
that the system has developed into a 35 knot tropical
storm over the past 06 hours. Recent microwave satellite
imagery, including a 282152z ssmis pass, depict tighten-
ing curvature in convective banding near the low level 
center. High ocean heat content along and near 20 degrees
north latitude and favorable poleward and equatorward
outflow have contributed to improvements in storm
structure.
3. Forecast reasoning.
   A. The forecast philosophy remains unchanged from the
previous warning.
   B. Ts 10w is expected to continue tracking along the
outer periphery of its parent monsoon circulation. In
the near term - between tau 00 and tau 24 - the storm
will track northeastward to northward in the gradient
between the broad monsoon circulation and near-Equator-
ial ridging to the southeast. After tau 24, the system
is expected to turn westward, continuing along the
the outer periphery of the monsoon circulation. A
building subtropical ridge to the northeast will provide
an additional westward steering influence. The storm
is expected to intensify at a climatological rate through
tau 36 under the influence of favorable equatorward out-
flow and poleward outflow enhanced by the upper tropo-
spheric trough (tutt) the north. Thereafter, the storm
should continue to intensify over very warm sea surface
temperatures, but potential intrusion of more stable,
subsident air associated with the TUTT and increasingly
suppressed poleward outflow are expected to slow the
intensification rate slightly.
   C. In the extended forecast period, ts 10w is forecast
to continue westward along the northern periphery of the
broader monsoon circulation and the southern periphery
of the subtropical ridge. Slow intensification should
continue as the then well-developed typhoon takes advan-
tage of high sea surface temperatures and moderate upper
level outflow.
Forecast team: Delta//