msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//
subj/prognostic reasoning for tropical storm 08w warning nr05//
rmks/
1. For meteorologists.
2. 12 hour summary and analysis.
   A. Tropical Storm (TS) 08w (Wutip) has consolidated only slightly
during the past twelve hours. Recent microwave imagery reveals a
more well-defined low level circulation center (LLCC), but moderate
northeasterly vertical wind shear has prevented significant convec-
tion from persisting over the center. The storm continues to track
along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge extending
across the western Pacific. The available dynamic aids have come
into better agreement over the past 12 hours with all now reflecting
a northwestward track toward Taiwan and the southeast coast of
China during the forecast period.
   B. Tropical Storm (TS) 08w (Wutip), located approximately 145 nm
east of kaoshiung, Taiwan, has tracked northwestward at 16 knots
over the past 06 hours. The most significant area of deep convection
associated with ts 08w has remained on the southwestern periphery of
the LLCC. Despite the sheared convective pattern, available satellite
intensity estimates and a 081012z Quikscat pass agree on the initial
tropical storm intensity of 35 knots.
3. Forecast reasoning.  
   A. The forecast track has been adjusted slightly southward based
on the expected orientation of the steering ridge to the north. The
intensity forecast has been revised to reflect a weaker system under
persistent vertical wind shear.
   B. Ts 08w is forecast to continue tracking rapidly toward the
coast of Taiwan under the influence of subtropical ridging to
to the north. Landfall over Taiwan is now expected prior to tau 12
and landfall in southeast China should occur around tau 24.
Persistent vertical wind shear and land interaction will cause the
system to gradually weaken and become fully dissipated over
southeastern China by tau 36.