msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//
subj/prognostic reasoning for tropical storm 07w warning nr18//
rmks/
1. For meteorologists.
2. 12 hour summary and analysis.
   A. Tropical Storm (TS) 07w (Pabuk) has weakened to a strong  
tropical depression over the past 12 hours due to moderate vertical
wind shear. The system has tracked southwest roughly parallel to 
the chinese coast over the past 12 hours. The track was adjusted 
southward from previous forecast tracks based on a 090931z ssmi
microwave image and animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery.  
   B. Tropical Storm (TS) 07w (Pabuk), located approximately 
140 nm southwest of Hong Kong, has tracked southwestward at 08 knots
over the past 06 hours. Animated enhanced infrared imagery indicates 
that the system did not make landfall as previously thought, instead
the system has tracked southwestward parallel to the coast and 
weakened to tropical depression strength. The intensity is based on
Dvorak estimates of 2.0/2.0 from pgtw and 1.5/1.5 from rjtd.
3. Forecast reasoning.  
   A. No changes in forecast reasoning.
   B. Ts 07w will further weaken due to increasing vertical wind 
shear and low ocean heat content. TD 07w will dissipate as a tropical
depression by tau 24.
Forecast team: Charlie//
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