msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//
subj/prognostic reasoning for tropical depression 06w warning nr12//
rmks/
1. For meteorologists.
2. 12 hour summary and analysis.
   A. Tropical depression (td) 06w (noname) continues to see bursts
of convection in the vicinity of the low level circulation center 
(LLCC). The track speed as slowed over the past 12 hours, and the
LLCC has remained just off shore. 
   B. TD 06w is located approximately 150 nm southeast of hue, 
Vietnam, and has tracked northward at 01 knot over the past 
06 hours. The storm's center is easily identifiable in animated 
enhanced infrared imagery, as it is currently fully exposed. The  
intensity is estimated at 25 kts due to Dvorak estimates of 1.5/1.5 
from pgtw and rjtd. 
3. Forecast reasoning.   
   A. The forecast philosophy for TD 06w remains unchanged from the
last prog reasoning.
   B. The str is the primary (albeit weak) steering influence for 
TD 06w. The forecast continues to call for the storm to track
northward through tau 48 before turning westward through tau 72.
The storm will remain near the coast through tau 24, before moving 
further into the Gulf of Tonkin. The addition of the japanese aids
has brought conw further east, back over water. The storm is expected
to maintain longer as TD. However, if TD 06w moves further inland
than forecast, it may dissipate prior to tau 72. Overall, the models
have had a very poor handle on the movement of the storm, and the
steering environment remains unclear. Therefore, a degree of
uncertainty exists in the forecast.
Forecast team: Charlie//