msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//
subj/prognostic reasoning for tropical depression 05w warning nr01//
rmks/
1. For meteorologists.
2. 12 hour summary and analysis.
   A. Tropical depression (td) 05w (noname) has consolidated over
the past 12 hours and deep convection has persisted over the low
level circulation center (LLCC). Recent satellite intensity EST-
imates of 1.5 from knes and 2.0 from pgtw and a 280821z quikscat
image confirm that surface winds associated with this system have
reached tropical depression force.  
   B. Tropical depression (td) 05w (noname) is located approx-
imately 260 nm northeast of Saipan. The current position is based
upon satellite fixes from pgtw and knes, as well as a 281046z
AMSU-b microwave satellite image. The current intensity is based
upon the aforementioned Dvorak intensity estimates and quikscat
image. TD 05w is tracking along the southern periphery of a ridge
anchored to the north of the system near 25.0n 155.0e. The system
is currently in a low vertical wind shear environment and has
favorable equatorward outflow. 
3. Forecast reasoning.   
   A. TD 05w is currently in the Standard, tropical easterlies
pattern. 
   B. TD 05w will continue to track to the west-northwest through
tau 24, as it tracks along the southern periphery of the anti-
cyclone to the north. After tau 24, the storm will track to the
northwest along the southwestern periphery of the steering ridge
toward a weakness induced by troughing currently over Japan. This
track will continue through the remainder of the forecast period.
The system will intensify near a climatological rate through tau 36
due to good equatorward outflow and low vertical wind shear. There-
after the storm will intensify at a climatological rate due to
increased poleward outflow into the mid-latitude flow and continued
favorable equatorward outflow. The limited number of dynamic aids
are in good agreement with the current forecast and the forecast is
based upon the consensus.
Forecast team: Bravo//

nnn