Wdpn31 Pgtw 010300 

msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc// 

subj/prognostic reasoning for tropical storm 01w warning nr 03//
rmks/
1. For meteorologists.
2. Prognostic reasoning for 010000z to 060000z Apr 2006.
   A. Tropical Storm (TS) 01w (Kong-Rey), located approximately
535 nm east-southeast of Guam, has tracked northwestward at 14 knots
over the past six hours. Ts 01w has intensified at a greater
than climatological rate over the past 12 hours.
   B. Through tau 48, ts 01w will continue to track northwestward
along the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge located
northwest of the tc. This scenario is supported by the available
dynamic aids, which are in good agreement.
   C. Ts 01w will intensify at a greater than climatological rate
through tau 24 due to good poleward outflow. After that, ts 01w
will continue to intensify through tau 48 at a slower rate due to
decreased outflow and slightly increased vertical wind shear.
   D. Current and forecast wind radii are based on climatology
for a large-sized developing system. 
   E. From tau 72, an approaching midlatitude trough currently
over northern China will enhance a weakness in the subtropical
ridge northwest of the marianas. As ts 01w approaches this weak-
Ness, it will slow and then begin a poleward turn. During this
time, ts 01w will begin weakening due to entrainment of drier air
and increasing vertical wind shear.
Forecast team: Charlie//
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