WDPN31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W WARNING NR 34//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 040000Z TO 050000Z NOV 2006.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 22W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 
355 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWEST AT 03 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
   B. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE WEAK STEERING
INFLUENCE OF LOWER LEVEL (850 MB) NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
RIDGING OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA. RECENT UPPER AIR SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS
OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA INDICATES COLD, DRY AIR ABOVE THE 700 MB 
LEVEL, WHICH IS UNFAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION OF TD 22W. FURTHERMORE, 
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL SEE A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER, DRIER AIR 
AROUND TAU 24, FROM AN ANTICYCLONE OFF THE ASIAN CONTINENT. TD 22W
WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY 
TAU 24. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS 
FORECAST TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS.  
   C. TD 22W EXPERIENCED A BRIEF DIURNAL FLAIR OF CONVECTION, LOCATED
TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT IMAGE 
INDICATES THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED ON THE NORTHWEST QUAD-
RANT OF THE STORM, AND ARE ASSOCIATED WITH GRADIENT NORTHEASTERLY 
FLOW. REGENERATION OF ANY REMNANT CIRCULATION (AFTER TAU 24) IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. 
   D. TS 22W DOES NOT MEET WIND RADII CRITERIA.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//
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