subj/prognostic reasoning for tropical storm 22w warning nr 30//
rmks/
1. For meteorologists.
2. Prognostic reasoning for 030000z to 041200z Nov 2006.
   A. Tropical Storm (TS) 22w (Cimaron), located approximately
305 nm south-southeast of Hong Kong, has tracked south-
southeastward at 04 knots over the past six hours.
   B. Ts 22w has weakened rapidly over the past 12 hours and is
now tracking under the steering influence of the low level (700-
850mb level) ridge situated over southeast China. The 02/12z
850mb/700mb analyses as well as the current Quikscat image
continue to show stronger winds on the western periphery of
the system. These northerly winds have produced the generally
southward track of ts 22w over the past 12 hours and have also
resulted in the slightly increased speed of advance to 04
to 05 knots. Ts 22w is expected to continue tracking south to
southwestward through the forecast period. The available dynamic
aids are now in good agreement with the exception of WBAR. The
forecast is based on the consensus of dynamic aids indicating
a southwestward to southward track. 
   C. A 022316z ssmis image depicts rapidly eroding deep convection,
particularly over the western semicircle, as cool, dry air entrains
into the system. Despite the decrease in vertical wind shear (now
light to moderate), the dry air entrainment remains the dominant
factor in the weakening process. Ts 22w is forecast to continue
weakening through the forecast period and will dissipate between
tau 24 and tau 36.      
   D. Current wind radii are based on a 022158z Quikscat image.
Forecast wind radii are based on climatology for an average-sized
system.
Forecast team: Delta//
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