WDPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W WARNING NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 290000Z OCT TO 030000Z NOV 2006.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 282358Z
SSMIS IMAGE AND RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE EYEWALL CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED
RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AND THE SYSTEM NOW HAS AN 18
NM ROUND EYE. 
   B. THE 28/12Z 500 MB ANALYSIS INDICATED A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM A HIGH CENTERED NEAR 23N 112E.
THERE IS A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THIS RIDGE SITUATED OVER TAIWAN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH THAT
IS CURRENTLY MOVING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE KOREAN PENINSULA.
TY 22W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL ON LUZON NEAR TAU 18 AS A 130-KNOT SYSTEM. TY
22W WILL SLOW SLIGHTLY AND WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT INTERACTS WITH
3000-7000 FOOT MOUNTAINS OVER NORTHERN LUZON AND IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA NEAR TAU 36. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE SITUATED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS
ORIENTED WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF WBAR, WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD INTO BOTH THE
UPPER RIDGE AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLIES AND IS
UNREALISTIC, AND THE NCEP GFS MODEL WHICH TRACKS TY 22W SOUTH-
WESTWARD AFTER TAU 48 AND REFLECTS AN EXCESSIVE WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
REMAINING DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TY 22W HAS MAINTAINED DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES NORTH OF TAIWAN ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
THEREFORE, TY 22W CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND IS EXPECTED
TO REACH SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL NEAR TAU 18. 
TY 22W WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER LUZON AND IS EXPECTED TO RE-
NTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AFTER MOVING OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BUT
THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED DUE TO INTERACTION
WITH RELATIVELY COOL, DRY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE NORTHEASTER-
LIES ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER EAST CHINA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE 28/12Z ANALYSES SHOW 1-2 MB SURFACE HEIGHT RISES OVER
EASTERN CHINA AS WELL AS STRONG CONVERGENCE AT 200 MB, WHICH
SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. MODELS ARE INDICATING A SHARP INCREASE
IN LOW-LEVEL WINDS NEAR 30/00Z SPREADING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA. THEREFORE, TY 22W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
STEADILY AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR AND ENTRAINMENT
OF THE DRIER, COOLER AIR.      
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON PERSISTENCE. FORECAST WIND
RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM. 
   E. BEYOND TAU 72, AS STATED IN PARA C, TY 22W WILL WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY AFTER TAU 96 AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
VIETNAM NEAR TAU 120. THIS SCENARIO IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE
MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. THE LONG RANGE FORECAST
TRACK IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//
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