WDPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W WARNING NR 31//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 171200Z TO 181200Z SEP 2006.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM
NORTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.  
   B. TY 14W IS UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT
SPEEDS NORTHEASTWARD, EMBEDDED WITHIN A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. TY 14W
IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF ITS LIFE 
CYCLE AND IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU
12. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORE-
CAST PERIOD. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND CONSENSUS
OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. 
   C. TY 14W IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH LAND AS IT UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRAN-
SITION. TY 14W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO A
BAROCLINIC SYSTEM.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 170901Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//
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