WDPN32 PGTW 160300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W WARNING NR 10// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 160000Z TO 170000Z AUG 2006. A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W (SONAMU) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM SOUTHEAST OF KYOTO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 32 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF TS 11W HAS COMPLETELY DISSIPATED THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TD 12W OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, COMPLETELY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS THAT LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF TD 12W ARE BEGINNING TO LINK WITH THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW OF TS 11W. B. STEERED BY THE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN AN ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN AND TS 11W TO THE WEST, TD 12W HAS ACCELERATED RAPIDLY NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEMS ARE SEPARATED BY ABOUT 260 NM AND SUGGESTS THAT A MERGER OF THE SMALLER TD 12W INTO THE LARGER TS 11W HAS COMMENCED. TD 12W IS EXPECTED TO FULLY MERGE WITH TS 11W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF JTYM, ECMWF, NOGAPS, AFWA MM5, AND TCLAPS ARE IN SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT DUE TO PROBLEMS RESOLVING AND TRACKING THE WEAK LLCC. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE BLENDED WITH A TREND OF CYCLONIC MOTION TOWARD TS 12W. C. CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH TS 11W WILL FURTHER WEAKEN TD 12W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SHEAR INCREASES AND LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS DISRUPTED. TD 12W IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 24 HOURS. FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE// NNNN HTTP/1.1 200 OK Date: Wed, 16 Aug 2006 05:16:23 GMT Server: Apache Content-Length: 0 Connection: close Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8