WDPN32 PGTW 140300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W WARNING NR 02// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 140000Z TO 170000Z AUG 2006. A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. B. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELITTE IMAGERY, A 131944Z TRMM PASS, A 132220Z SSMI PASS, AND A 132314Z SSMIS PASS DEPICT AN INCREASINGLY DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE TRACK HAS MAIN- TAINED A STEADY EASTWARD TRACK BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO TURN NORTH- WARD AFTER TAU 12. TD 12W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MONSOON GYRE AND WILL REMAIN ALONG THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE GYRE THROUGH TAU 72. THE LIMITED AIDS AVAILABLE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND SPEED OF TD 12W THROUGH TAU 72. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS TD 12W TRACKING TOWARD TS 11W, BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EFFECT TS 11W IS HAVING ON THE TD 12W TRACK. C. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT A SLIGHTLY LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DUE TO POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING IMPINGED BY EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW FROM TS 11W. TD 12W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HINDERING FASTER DEVELOPMENT. D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM. FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO// NNNN HTTP/1.1 200 OK Date: Mon, 14 Aug 2006 08:46:26 GMT Server: Apache Content-Length: 0 Connection: close Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8