WDPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 160000Z TO 210000Z AUG 2006.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (WUKONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350
NM SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, RECENT SATELLITE
FIXES INDICATE THAT THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE STORM CENTER HAS
SLOWED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST THREE HOURS.
   B. TS 11W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED EAST OF HONSHU. INTERACTION WITH
THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W HAS IMPEDED THIS WESTWARD
MOTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. TS 11W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 06 HOURS BUT SHOULD RETURN TO A
SLOW, WESTWARD TRACK WITHIN 06 TO 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO RESUME A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36  UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE INDUCED BY AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST CHINA.
THEREAFTER, RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CHINA AND
THE YELLOW SEA, STEERING THE SYSTEM BACK TOWARD THE WEST. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NCEP GFS, GFDN, JTYM, NOGAPS, AFWA MM5,
COAMPS, UKMET EGRR, ECMWF, JGSM AND WBAR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AFWA MM5, WHICH SHOWS A SHARP
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND LOOP, AND THE ECMWF AND WBAR, WHICH DEPICT A
SHARP TURN NORTHWARD INTO SHIKOKU. THIS FORECAST WAS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON AFWA MM5, ECMWF,
AND WBAR.
   C. TS 11W HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST
THAT STABLE AIR HAS BEEN ENTRAINED INTO THE STORM CENTER FROM THE
NORTHWEST, PARTIALLY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
THROUGH TAU 72 AS THE UNFAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF STABLE AIR ENTRAINMENT
AND LAND INTERACTIONS OFFSET MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND
PASSAGE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE KUROSHIO CURRENT.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 152148Z SSMI PASS. FORECAST
WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN
AVERAGE TO LARGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. TS 11W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD AFTER TAU 72 AS RIDGING
OVER CENTRAL CHINA BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. INCREASING SHEAR AND ELONGATION OF THE STORM CIRCULATION
CENTER ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//
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Date: Wed, 16 Aug 2006 05: