WDPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W WARNING NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 150000Z TO 200000Z AUG 2006.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (WUKONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGER SINCE
142330Z INDICATES THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST.
   B. TS 11W HAS REMAINED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COMPETING STEERING
RIDGES OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AS EVIDENT BY THE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
DRIFT. A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH OVER CHINA IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EAST-
WARD AND CAUSE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER JAPAN TO BUILD. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A WESTWARD TRACK OF TS 11W AS THE STR OVER
JAPAN BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH TAU 48. BEYOND
TAU 48, THE TRACK OF TS 11W WILL SHIFT MORE POLEWARD AS THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS KOREA. THE PROXIMITY OF TS 12W IS ALSO
A COMPETING FACTOR IN THE OVERALL TRACK OF TS 11W. TS 11W WILL REMAIN
THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION HOWEVER AND TS 12W WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT
ON THE TRACK OF TS 11W. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NCEP
GFS, GFDN, JTYM, NOGAPS, COAMPS, WBAR, AFWA MM5, EGRR, ECMWF, JGSM,
AND TCLAPS ARE IN SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT. WHILE ALL AIDS INDICATE
THE ADVANCING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, THEY DIFFER EITHER ON THE INTER-
ACTION BETWEEN TS 11W AND THIS TROUGH OR ON THE AFFECT OF TS 12W ON TS
11W. NOGAPS AND EGRR HAVE BEEN SUPERIOR PERFORMERS IN THE NEAR TERM
AND THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
WITH MORE EMPHASIS PLACE ON NOGAPS AND EGRR.
   C. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOG-
ICAL RATE DUE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR FROM OUTFLOW DUE TO RIDGING TO THE
NORTH AND DISRUPTED INFLOW FROM TS 12W TO ITS SOUTH.
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 142258Z AMSU PASS. FORE-
CAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY
FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 11W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TO-
WARD THE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY THE ADVANCING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO WHETHER THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CAUGHT BY THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH OR STAIR STEP TO THE
WEST AS THE TROUGH MISSES THE SYSTEM AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD NEAR
TAU 120. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH JAPAN BEYOND TAU 72
AND ALSO BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//

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