WDPN33 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W WARNING NR 16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 100000Z TO 111200Z AUG 2006.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W (BOPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
140 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
   B. THE TRACK OF TD 10W HAS SHIFTED SOUTH AS THE MID-LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE HAS STRENGTHENED AND PUSHED EQUATORWARD. THE MODELS CONSISTING
OF UKMO, NCEP GFS, NOGAPS, AFWA MM5, JGSM, TCLAPS, WBAR AND BAM'S
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PER-
SISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS
PLACED ON AFWA MM5 WHICH IS INDICATING A TRANSITION TO AN EASTERLY
TRACK.
   C. WHILE TD 10W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT 36
HOURS, A PERSISTENT ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH SHEAR WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
DISSIPATE BY TAU 36.
   D. INTENSITY OF THE STORM WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND RADII CRITERIA
FOR THE LIFE OF THE SYSTEM. 
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//
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