WDPN33 PGTW 081500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W WARNING NR 10// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 081200Z TO 101200Z AUG 2006. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (BOPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM SOUTHEAST TAIPEI, TAIWAN HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. B. TS 10W HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECT- ION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING TO THE NORTH. THE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING IS NOT ANTIC- IPATED. THE DISTANCE BETWEEN TY 08W AND TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE OTHERS TRACK SIG- NIFICANTLY. AFTER LANDFALL ON CENTRAL TAIWAN JUST PRIOR TO TAU 12, TS 10W WILL CONTINUE TO THE WEST AND MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL ON MAINLAND CHINA. THE DYNAMIC AIDS GUIDANCE CONSISTING OF GFDN, AFWA MM5, JGSM, COAMPS, TCLAPS, NCEP GFS AND WBAR ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMIC AIDS. C. TS 10W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN AND THEN CHINA. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND VERT- ICAL WIND SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE, SO WEAKENING WILL BE GRADUAL. D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 081155Z SSM/I PASS. FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA// NNNN