WDPN32 PGTW 080300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W WARNING NR 10// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 080000Z TO 110000Z AUG 2006. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM SOUTH- WEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. B. TS 09W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR KYOTO, JAPAN. ANALYSIS OF RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW THAT STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES HAVE SHEARED THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MAKE LANDFALL JUST PRIOR TO TAU 24. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF COAMPS, ECMWF, EGGR, GFDN, GFS, GSM, JTYM, AFWA MM5, NOGAPS, TCLAPS, AND WBAR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH AFWA MM5 BEING THE SOUTHERNMOST OUTLIER. THIS FORECAST WAS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS, WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON AFWA MM5. C. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUING FLARING NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC, PARTICULARLY AS THE STORM CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE KUROSHIO CURRENT. HOWEVER, THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN, PARTICULARLY AFTER LANDFALL, AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 72. D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 072119 AMSU PASS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN SMALL SIZED SYSTEM. FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO// NNNNHTTP/1.1 200 OK Date: Tue, 08 Aug 2006 10:11:49 GMT Server: Apache Content-Length: 0 Connection: close Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8