WDPN31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 08W WARNING NR 22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 100000Z TO 110000Z AUG 2006.
   A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 08W (SAOMAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TAIPEI HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
   B. STY 08W CONTINUES TO TRACK RAPIDLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED
SOUTH OF HONSHU. STY 08W WILL MAKE LANDFALL NORTH OF FUZHOU, CHINA
BY TAU 12. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF EGRR, WBAR, NCEP GFS, GFDN, NGPS, COAMPS, TCLAPS,
JTYM, AND AFWA MM5.
   C. STY 08W WILL MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY UNTIL LANDFALL AND
THEN RAPIDLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 36. 
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 092210Z AMSU-B PASS.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//
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