WDPN31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W WARNING NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 090000Z TO 110000Z AUG 2006.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 08W (SAOMAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
   B. TY 08W IS TRACKING RAPIDLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTHEASTOF
HONSHU. THIS MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT
TOWARD A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 24, AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO
BUILD NORTH OF THE STORM. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF EGRR, WBAR, NCEP GFS, GFDN,
NGPS, COAMPS, TCLAPS, JGSM, JTYM, AND AFWA MM5 ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT.
JGSM AND AFWA MM5 SHOW A SHARPER TURN TO THE SOUTH AND EGRR MAIN-
TAINS A CONTINUOUS TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ALL THREE OF THESE
AIDS WERE WEIGHED LESS FAVORABLY IN TRACK DETERMINATION.
   C. TY 08W HAS DEVELOPED A CLOUD FREE EYE IN THE LAST SIX HOURS
INDICATING THE MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE
EYE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE
REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL IN INITIAL
TAUS OF FORECAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
EASTERN CHINA BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24. BEYOND TAU 24 THE INTENSITY
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS TY 08W BEGINS TO APPROACH CHINA, MAKING
LANDFALL AT TAU 36. BEYOND TAU 36 TY 08W WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED TO BE FULLY DISSIPATED AS
A TROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 48.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON 082052Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND 
090000Z SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//
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